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University of Hawaii

Electrical Engineering

Solar Radiation Forecast under Asymmetric Cost Functions

Date: 2016-11-02           Add to Google Calendar
Time: 4:00pm - 5:00pm
Location: Holmes Hall 389
Speaker: Seyyed Abolhasan Fatemi, PhD student, University of Hawaiʻi Electrical Engineering

In electric power grids, generation should be equal load at all times. Since wind and solar power are intermittent, system operators must predict renewable generation and allocate operating reserves to mitigate imbalances. If they overestimate the renewable generation during scheduling, there isnít enough generation available during operation, which can be very costly. However, if they underestimate the renewable generation, usually they face only the cost of keeping some generation capacity online and idle. Therefore overestimation of renewable generation resources most often presents a more serious problem than underestimation. Many researchers train their solar radiation forecast algorithms using symmetric criteria like RMSE or MAE, and then a bias is applied to the forecast later to reflect the asymmetric cost faced by the system operator - a technique we call indirectly biased forecasts. We investigate solar radiation forecasts using asymmetric cost functions (convex piecewise linear (CPWL) and LinEx).